# Use This High Probability Setup to Trade Bitcoin Page: https://tosindicators.com/research/high-probability-bitcoin-orb-setup-thinkorswim Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFo4i80Llhs Section: Research Access: free Updated: 2026-02-26 We use the ORB reporting page to compare 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute opening range breakout performance across SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ, Gold, Silver, and GBTC over 90 days. Bitcoin (GBTC) leads the field on the 5-minute and 15-minute ranges with a 70% long win rate and 65% short win rate on the 5-minute setup. The 30-minute range, however, shows negative results on GBTC. The NASDAQ is the best traditional index on the 15-minute range. 70%GBTC 5-Min Long Win Rate 65%GBTC 5-Min Short Win Rate GBTCTop Market (5 & 15-Min ORB) 90 DaysBacktest Period ## Comparing ORB Performance Across Markets In the companion video, we use the ORB platform's reporting page to compare opening range breakout performance across seven markets: SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ, Gold, Silver, and GBTC (Bitcoin proxy). The reporting page allows you to compare multiple markets at once with high-level stats, including win rate, strategy ROI, P&L, and trade expectancy. For all [Volatility Box](https://tosindicators.com/volatility-box) members, you can access the ORB reporting page and backtester through the platform. ## 5-Minute Opening Range: GBTC Leads Starting with the 5-minute opening range breakout over 90 days (half range stop, half range target), GBTC ranked at the top across both win rate and strategy ROI. This tells us that Bitcoin, when it breaks out of the first 5 minutes, tends to follow through in whichever direction it moves. Switching to a full range target (risk one to make two), GBTC remained at the top when sorted by strategy ROI. The wider target did not knock Bitcoin off the leaderboard, suggesting that when GBTC breakouts work, the move extends well beyond the half range projection. ## 15-Minute Opening Range: Bitcoin Still on Top Expanding to the 15-minute range with the half range stop and target, GBTC again ranked first in both win rate and strategy ROI. The NASDAQ (QQQ) came in shortly behind as the best traditional index market on the 15-minute setup. With a full range target on the 15-minute range, a handful of markets maintained positive ROI, and GBTC remained at the top. The consistency across both the 5-minute and 15-minute ranges points to Bitcoin as the standout ORB market during this 90-day period. ## 30-Minute Opening Range: Different Story At the 30-minute range, the rankings shifted. IWM and SPY moved to the top when sorted by strategy ROI. GBTC dropped to the bottom. This tells us that the first 5 and 15 minutes capture Bitcoin's morning volatility well, but by the 30-minute mark, the initial burst has faded and the setup no longer works on GBTC. **Key Takeaway:** GBTC is the top ORB market for the 5-minute and 15-minute ranges with a 70% long win rate and 65% short win rate on the 5-minute setup. The 30-minute range does not work on Bitcoin. For traditional index markets, SPY and IWM perform best on the 30-minute range, while QQQ is the best index on the 15-minute range. ## Deep Dive: GBTC Backtester Results Drilling into GBTC with the backtester over 90 days on the 5-minute range (half stop, half target), the numbers break down as follows: longs at 70% win rate, shorts at 65% win rate, positive P&L across both directions, and a steadily rising P&L curve over time. The trade expectancy and strategy ROI are both positive. Switching to a full range target while keeping the half range stop, the overall win rate drops (as expected with a wider target), but the longs outperform the shorts. Even the short side, despite being below 50% win rate, produced a positive P&L on the full range target. This means when short-side breakouts work on GBTC, the winners are large enough to offset the losers. On the 15-minute range, longs sat at the 50% mark with the full range target, but the overall P&L remained positive. The P&L curve continued climbing, confirming the setup works on this timeframe as well. On the 30-minute range, the P&L showed a clear negative trend. This is the setup to avoid on GBTC. ## Using the Scanner to Stay Current The ORB scanner automates the analysis shown in the reporting page. Set your thresholds (for example, a minimum 75% win rate with positive P&L and expectancy), and the scanner shows only the setups that currently meet those criteria. When a market starts backtesting well, the scanner adds it to the rotation. When it stops working, the scanner removes it. This keeps you on the right side of the trade without manually re-running reports. ## Workflow for Finding ORB Opportunities Start on the reporting page to compare multiple markets at a high level. Identify which markets and which opening range timeframes are working. Then use the backtester to drill into the top performers and see the P&L curve, long/short breakdown, and specific trade history. Finally, set up the scanner with your criteria to monitor these setups automatically going forward. [Volatility Box](https://tosindicators.com/volatility-box)[Volatility Box for Stocks](https://tosindicators.com/volatility-box/stocks)[Free ORB Indicator](https://tosindicators.com/opening-range-breakout)[ThinkOrSwim Indicators](https://tosindicators.com/indicators/) ## Frequently Asked Questions ### Which market performs best with the ORB strategy right now? GBTC (Bitcoin) ranked first across both the 5-minute and 15-minute opening range breakouts over the past 90 days. On the 5-minute setup with half range stop and target, GBTC showed a 70% long win rate and 65% short win rate with a steadily rising P&L curve. ### Does the ORB work on Bitcoin for the 30-minute range? No. The 30-minute opening range breakout on GBTC shows a clearly negative P&L. Bitcoin's morning volatility is best captured in the first 5 to 15 minutes. By the 30-minute mark, the initial burst has faded. SPY and IWM are the better 30-minute ORB markets. ### What is the best traditional index for the ORB? QQQ (NASDAQ) ranked shortly behind GBTC on the 15-minute range. On the 30-minute range, SPY and IWM ranked at the top. The best index depends on which opening range timeframe you trade. ### Does the short side of Bitcoin ORB work? Yes. On the 5-minute range, the short side showed a 65% win rate. Even with a full range target (where the short win rate dropped below 50%), the P&L remained positive because the winners were large enough to offset the losers. ### How does the ORB scanner help? The scanner automates the reporting and backtesting process. Set thresholds like minimum 75% win rate with positive P&L and expectancy. The scanner only shows setups meeting those criteria and automatically updates as market conditions change. ## Questions ### Which market performs best with the ORB strategy right now? GBTC (Bitcoin) ranked first on both 5-min and 15-min ranges over 90 days. 70% long win rate and 65% short on the 5-min setup. ### Does the ORB work on Bitcoin for the 30-minute range? No. The 30-min range on GBTC shows a clearly negative P&L. SPY and IWM are the better 30-minute ORB markets. ### What is the best traditional index for the ORB? QQQ on the 15-min range. SPY and IWM on the 30-min range. Depends on which opening range timeframe you trade. ### Does the short side of Bitcoin ORB work? Yes. 65% short win rate on 5-min. Even with wider targets where win rate drops below 50%, the P&L stays positive because winners are large. ### How does the ORB scanner help? Set thresholds (e.g., 75% min win rate, positive P&L). The scanner shows only qualifying setups and updates automatically as conditions change. ### How does the Volatility Box improve ORB trade selection? The Volatility Box provides dynamic support and resistance from historical volatility. When an ORB breakout aligns with Volatility Box expansion, the win rate increases from 64% to 71%. Breakouts that move into a Volatility Box level rather than away from it should be skipped, as they fail 52% of the time. ## Related - [The Predictive Powers of Morning Volatility](https://tosindicators.com/research/predict-morning-volatility) - [Call Walls and Put Walls Explained: What They Are and How to Read Them](https://tosindicators.com/research/call-walls-and-put-walls-explained) - [Best ThinkorSwim Indicators: 15 Custom Studies Every Trader Needs](https://tosindicators.com/research/best-thinkorswim-indicators-15-custom-studies-every-trader-needs) - [Trend Shift Scanner: Catch Reversals at the Inflection Point](https://tosindicators.com/research/trend-shift-scanner) - [ES Futures Trading Strategy: Volatility Levels, ORB, and ATR-Based Entries](https://tosindicators.com/research/es-futures-trading-strategy-volatility-levels-orb-atr-based-entries) - [Best Volume Indicators for ThinkorSwim: Relative Volume, VWAP, and OBV](https://tosindicators.com/research/best-volume-indicators-thinkorswim-relative-volume-vwap-obv)