# Can Microsoft Do It Again? Page: https://tosindicators.com/research/microsoft-msft-earnings-pattern-analysis-thinkorswim Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPaynB54EwM Section: Research Access: free Updated: 2026-02-26 We analyze Microsoft and Apple using the pre-earnings analysis indicator ahead of their upcoming earnings reports. Microsoft tends to rally into earnings 75% of the time with an average gain of 3%, and IV rises 60% of the time. However, this earnings cycle saw bearish pressure instead of the usual bullish optimism, creating a potential buy-the-dip opportunity if MSFT can close above $414.50. Apple tends to rise only 57% of the time with a 3.29% average gain but is at previous support near $165. 75%MSFT Rallies Into Earnings 3%MSFT Avg Pre-Earnings Rally 57%AAPL Rallies Into Earnings 3.29%AAPL Avg Pre-Earnings Rally ## Pre-Earnings Personality: Microsoft In the companion video, we use the pre-earnings analysis indicator to compare Microsoft and Apple ahead of their upcoming reports. The indicator is available free for all [Volatility Box](https://tosindicators.com/volatility-box) members at tosindicators.com/earnings. This analysis used a 10-year lookback, though you can expand to the maximum available or narrow to 5 years. Microsoft reports April 25th after the close. Over the 10-year analysis window, MSFT tends to rally in the 7 days prior to earnings 75% of the time. The average rally is approximately 3%. The average decline (the other 25% of the time) is 2.7%. Implied volatility rises 60% of the time as earnings approach. However, this particular earnings cycle broke from the pattern. In the 7 days prior to earnings, MSFT saw bearish pressure rather than the expected bullish optimism. With 2 days left until the report, the bullish tendency had not yet kicked in. ## The MSFT Opportunity For this earnings cycle's count to register as bullish (price rising into earnings), MSFT would need to close above the price level from 7 days prior, approximately $414.50. If MSFT gets above that level, the count increases to 31 bullish pre-earnings cycles. The chart showed MSFT coming into previous support areas, which adds a technical reason for buyers to step in alongside the seasonal pre-earnings tendency. This created what could be a better entry price than buying 7 days before earnings blindly. The tendency to rally had not played out yet, but the historical data suggested it might still kick in during the final two days. **Key Takeaway:** MSFT rallies into earnings 75% of the time with a 3% average gain. This cycle saw unusual bearish pressure instead, but with MSFT sitting at previous support, the setup offers a potentially better entry than the typical 7-day-prior buy. MSFT needs to close above ~$414.50 for the bullish tendency to play out. ## Pre-Earnings Personality: Apple Apple reports May 2nd after the close. The 7-day pre-earnings window had just begun at the time of the video. Apple's numbers are different from Microsoft: price tends to rise only 57% of the time (versus MSFT's 75%). The average gain when it does rise is 3.29%, slightly higher than MSFT's 3%. However, implied volatility does not rise as often as it does for MSFT. Apple had experienced a deeper correction and was sitting at previous support near $165 (the prior low). This technical context, combined with the 57% pre-earnings rally tendency, made AAPL an interesting setup as well. Unlike MSFT where you had only 2 days left, Apple still had time for the move to develop. ## Comparing the Two Setups Microsoft offers the higher-probability pre-earnings rally (75% vs. 57%) but with less time remaining and the bullish tendency not yet engaged. Apple offers more time to develop and a deeper pullback to previous support, but the historical tendency is weaker. Both stocks were at previous support levels, which provides a technical backdrop for the long side regardless of the earnings tendency. The pre-earnings indicator gives you the data to decide which setup fits your style: higher probability with less time (MSFT), or more time with a better price at support (AAPL). ## Next Steps for Analysis You can extend this analysis by changing the lookback period. Compare 20 years, 10 years, and 5 years to see if the tendency has been strengthening or weakening. You can also apply the pre-earnings indicator to any stock that reports earnings. For post-earnings analysis, Volatility Box members have access to a separate post-earnings analysis indicator at tosindicators.com/earnings. [Volatility Box](https://tosindicators.com/volatility-box)[Volatility Box for Stocks](https://tosindicators.com/volatility-box/stocks)[ThinkOrSwim Indicators](https://tosindicators.com/indicators/) ## Frequently Asked Questions ### How often does MSFT rally before earnings? 75% of the time over a 10-year analysis window. The average rally is approximately 3%. The average decline (25% of the time) is 2.7%. IV rises 60% of the time. ### How often does AAPL rally before earnings? 57% of the time over the same 10-year window. The average gain is 3.29%, slightly higher than MSFT. IV does not rise as consistently as it does for MSFT. ### What was different about this MSFT earnings cycle? MSFT saw bearish pressure in the 7 days prior to earnings instead of the usual bullish optimism. The stock needed to close above ~$414.50 for the bullish tendency to register for this cycle. ### Where can I get the pre-earnings indicator? Free for all Volatility Box members at tosindicators.com/earnings. It includes both pre-earnings and post-earnings analysis indicators. You can apply it to any stock and adjust the lookback period. ### Which stock was the better setup? Depends on your style. MSFT had higher probability (75%) but less time. AAPL had more time and a deeper pullback to support near $165, but a lower historical tendency (57%). Both were at previous support levels. ## Questions ### How often does MSFT rally before earnings? 75% of the time over 10 years. Average rally 3%, average decline 2.7%. IV rises 60% of the time. ### How often does AAPL rally before earnings? 57% of the time. Average gain 3.29%. IV does not rise as consistently as MSFT. ### What was different about this MSFT earnings cycle? Bearish pressure instead of the usual bullish optimism. MSFT needed to close above ~$414.50 for the tendency to register. ### Where can I get the pre-earnings indicator? Free for Volatility Box members at tosindicators.com/earnings. Includes pre and post-earnings analysis. ### Which stock was the better setup? MSFT had higher probability (75%) with less time. AAPL had more time and deeper pullback to support ($165) but lower tendency (57%). ### Does MSFT stock price follow through after an earnings gap? Yes, in the majority of cases. MSFT shows post-earnings drift with a 62% follow-through rate after gap ups and a 58% rate after gap downs. The follow-through rate improves significantly to 71% when the earnings gap is accompanied by volume at least 2x the 20-day average. 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