DIS Post-Earnings Performance

Why Disney Earnings Reports Move Markets

Disney (DIS) occupies a unique position in the earnings calendar. The company spans theme parks, streaming (Disney+), linear TV (ESPN, ABC), and studio entertainment. Each segment carries its own set of expectations, and a beat in one area can be offset by a miss in another. This complexity creates outsized volatility on earnings day, making DIS a prime candidate for traders using thinkorswim indicators to capture post-report moves.

Over the past eight quarters, DIS has posted an average absolute move of 4.8% on earnings day. That figure exceeds the implied move priced into options in five of those eight periods. For traders running volatility box setups, this gap between implied and realized volatility represents a structural edge worth studying.

Historical DIS Earnings Reactions: The Data

Before building any trading plan around Disney earnings, review the raw data. The table below captures the last eight quarterly reports, including the earnings date, EPS result vs. consensus, the opening gap direction and size, and how price closed relative to that gap.

The pattern is clear: DIS gaps tend to fill. Out of eight quarters, six showed meaningful gap-fill behavior within the first session, and the two that did not (May 2025, May 2024) both involved strong EPS beats accompanied by raised forward guidance. Traders using thinkorswim scanners to flag gap-fill setups on DIS have a historically favorable data set to work with.

Streaming Subscriber Data: The Hidden Catalyst

Since the launch of Disney+ in November 2019, subscriber metrics have become the single most market-moving data point in Disney earnings reports. Wall Street models now place more weight on Disney+ subscriber net adds and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) than on traditional revenue or EPS figures.

When Disney beats on EPS but misses on subscriber growth, the stock tends to gap up modestly at the open and then sell off through the session. The reverse scenario, where the company misses on EPS but shows accelerating subscriber momentum, often produces an initial gap down that recovers aggressively by the close. For traders relying on thinkorswim indicators to time entries, understanding this layered reaction matters.

Pre-Earnings Volatility Compression: TTM Squeeze on DIS

One of the most reliable pre-earnings patterns on DIS is volatility compression measured through the TTM Squeeze on thinkorswim. In six of the last eight earnings cycles, DIS entered a TTM Squeeze (Bollinger Bands inside Keltner Channels) within the two weeks before the report. This compression creates a coiled spring effect, where the earnings gap becomes the release event.

The ttm squeeze thinkorswim setup works best on DIS when you confirm it across multiple timeframes. A daily squeeze firing simultaneously with a weekly squeeze produces the largest post-earnings moves. In May 2025, when DIS gapped up 7.2%, both the daily and weekly squeeze were active heading into the report.

ThinkScript: DIS Earnings Gap Scanner

The following ThinkScript code builds a custom scanner that identifies when DIS (or any stock in your watchlist) has gapped more than 3% at the open following an earnings report. This scanner is one of the most practical thinkorswim scripts for day trading earnings reactions.

# DIS Earnings Gap Scanner
# Identifies post-earnings gaps exceeding 3%

def earnings = HasEarnings(EarningTime.AFTER_MARKET) within 1 bars
            or HasEarnings(EarningTime.BEFORE_MARKET);
def gapUp = open > close[1] * 1.03;
def gapDown = open < close[1] * 0.97;
def gapPercent = Round(AbsValue((open - close[1]) / close[1]) * 100, 1);

plot scan = earnings and (gapUp or gapDown);

AddLabel(yes, "Gap: " + gapPercent + "%",
    if gapUp then Color.GREEN else Color.RED);

Load this into the thinkorswim Stock Hacker scanner by selecting "Custom" under the scan criteria. Apply it to your earnings watchlist, and it will flag every stock that gaps more than 3% on an earnings day.

ThinkScript: Volatility Box Earnings Overlay

This script overlays historical earnings dates on your DIS chart and marks the expected move range based on options-implied volatility. Pairing this with the volatility box indicator gives you a visual framework for where price is likely to trade post-earnings.

# Volatility Box Earnings Overlay for DIS
# Plots expected move range around earnings dates

input lookbackBars = 5;
input expectedMovePercent = 5.0;

def isEarnings = HasEarnings(EarningTime.AFTER_MARKET) within 1 bars
              or HasEarnings(EarningTime.BEFORE_MARKET);

def earningsClose = if isEarnings then close else earningsClose[1];
def upperExpected = earningsClose * (1 + expectedMovePercent / 100);
def lowerExpected = earningsClose * (1 - expectedMovePercent / 100);

plot UpperBand = if isEarnings within lookbackBars bars then upperExpected else Double.NaN;
plot LowerBand = if isEarnings within lookbackBars bars then lowerExpected else Double.NaN;

UpperBand.SetDefaultColor(Color.CYAN);
LowerBand.SetDefaultColor(Color.CYAN);
UpperBand.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
LowerBand.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
AddCloud(UpperBand, LowerBand, Color.DARK_GRAY);

Post-Earnings Drift: Does DIS Continue or Reverse?

Post-earnings drift (PED) refers to the tendency for a stock to continue moving in the direction of its earnings gap over the following days. On DIS, the drift pattern shows a notable asymmetry. Positive gaps that follow EPS beats tend to continue drifting higher for 3 to 5 sessions. Negative gaps following misses tend to reverse more aggressively, with the stock recovering a large portion of the gap within 5 sessions.

Gap-down scenarios on DIS have an 85% fill rate, while gap-up scenarios fill at a lower 65% rate. This difference is statistically meaningful and should inform your position sizing when using thinkorswim scanners to trade DIS after earnings.

Setting Up a DIS Earnings Trade Using TTM Squeeze

Here is a step-by-step framework for trading DIS earnings using the ttm squeeze thinkorswim setup and supporting indicators.

Step 1: Check the Squeeze Status (2 Weeks Before Earnings)
Open a daily chart of DIS in thinkorswim and apply the TTM Squeeze indicator. Look for red dots on the histogram, which indicate that Bollinger Bands have contracted inside the Keltner Channels. If DIS is in a squeeze heading into earnings, the post-report move has historically been 25% to 40% larger than the average.

Step 2: Confirm With the Weekly Timeframe
Switch to the weekly chart and check for squeeze alignment. If both daily and weekly squeezes are active, you have a high-probability setup for an outsized move.

Step 3: Define Your Expected Move Range
Use the volatility box indicator or calculate the expected move manually by dividing the at-the-money straddle price by the current stock price. For DIS, this typically falls between 4% and 6%.

Step 4: Plan Your Entry and Exit
If DIS gaps beyond the expected move, consider a fade trade back toward the expected move boundary. If DIS gaps within the expected move, consider a continuation trade in the direction of the gap. Set stops at 1.5x the expected move to avoid getting caught in a momentum extension.

ThinkScript: Post-Earnings Momentum Detector

This ThinkScript identifies post-earnings momentum by comparing the first 30 minutes of trading volume to the 20-day average. High relative volume in the first 30 minutes often predicts whether the earnings gap will continue or reverse. This is one of the more actionable thinkorswim scripts for day trading the earnings session.

# Post-Earnings Momentum Detector
# Compares opening 30-min volume to 20-day average

input avgLength = 20;
input volumeMultiplier = 2.0;

def isEarnings = HasEarnings(EarningTime.AFTER_MARKET) within 1 bars
              or HasEarnings(EarningTime.BEFORE_MARKET);

def firstBar = SecondsFromTime(0930) >= 0 and SecondsFromTime(0930) < 1800;
def earlyVolume = if firstBar then volume else 0;
def avgVolume = Average(volume, avgLength);
def relativeVol = earlyVolume / avgVolume;

plot highMomentum = isEarnings and firstBar and relativeVol > volumeMultiplier;

AddLabel(firstBar, "RelVol: " + Round(relativeVol, 1) + "x",
    if relativeVol > volumeMultiplier then Color.GREEN
    else if relativeVol > 1.0 then Color.YELLOW
    else Color.RED);

Options Strategies for DIS Earnings

Given the gap-fill tendency on DIS, certain options strategies offer better risk-adjusted returns than directional stock trades.

Iron Condor (Neutral, High Fill-Rate Expectation): Sell a call spread and put spread outside the expected move range. DIS staying within the expected move results in maximum profit. This works best when the TTM Squeeze is not active, suggesting lower-than-average volatility expansion potential.

Short Straddle With Defined Risk: Sell the at-the-money straddle and buy protective wings 10% out. This captures the volatility crush that occurs on the day after earnings. DIS options typically lose 60% to 75% of their pre-earnings premium on the first post-report trading day.

Broken Wing Butterfly (Directional Bias): If your analysis of the streaming data and parks revenue trends gives you a directional view, a broken wing butterfly lets you define risk while maintaining an asymmetric payout. Place the body at your expected post-gap price level and widen the wing in your preferred direction.

Using Volatility Box Levels for DIS Entry Points

The volatility box indicator calculates dynamic support and resistance levels based on historical volatility ranges. After the earnings gap, identify where price has opened relative to the nearest Volatility Box level. If DIS gaps above the upper Volatility Box band, the probability of a pullback to that band within 3 sessions exceeds 70% based on historical data.

Pair the Volatility Box levels with the volatility box for stocks settings to get sector-adjusted bands. Media and entertainment stocks have different volatility characteristics than tech or financials, and the sector-adjusted bands account for this difference automatically.

DIS Earnings and Sector Correlation

Disney does not trade in isolation after earnings. The stock has meaningful correlation with the broader media and entertainment sector, and its post-earnings move often pulls related names along with it. When DIS gaps up on strong streaming numbers, names like Netflix (NFLX), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Paramount Global (PARA) tend to gap in sympathy.

This correlation creates secondary trading opportunities. If you miss the DIS earnings trade itself, scanning for correlated names using thinkorswim scanners can identify sympathy plays that offer similar profiles without the same level of gap risk.

Building a Pre-Earnings Checklist for DIS

Common Mistakes When Trading DIS Earnings

Mistake 1: Ignoring the Earnings Call
The initial gap reflects the headline numbers. The intraday reversal or continuation often depends on the tone of the earnings call, particularly commentary about Disney+ profitability, ESPN strategic options, and parks capacity expansion. Trading only on the gap without monitoring the call leaves money on the table.

Mistake 2: Oversizing the Position
The average DIS earnings gap is 4.8%. That means a $100,000 position faces a $4,800 open P&L swing at the gap alone. Many traders who are comfortable with $500 daily swings suddenly find themselves in a $5,000 hole because they did not adjust their position size for the earnings event.

Mistake 3: Treating Every Quarter the Same
Disney's earnings reaction depends on which segment is in focus that quarter. A strong parks quarter plays differently from a strong streaming quarter. Use the pre-earnings checklist above to identify the key catalyst for each specific report.

ThinkScript: Earnings Volatility Rank for DIS

This ThinkScript calculates a custom "Earnings Volatility Rank" that compares the current implied volatility to the historical range of implied volatility heading into past earnings. A high rank suggests the market expects a larger-than-average move, while a low rank suggests complacency.

# Earnings Volatility Rank for DIS
# Ranks current IV against historical earnings IV

input ivLength = 252;

def iv = imp_volatility();
def ivHigh = Highest(iv, ivLength);
def ivLow = Lowest(iv, ivLength);
def ivRank = if (ivHigh - ivLow) != 0
             then (iv - ivLow) / (ivHigh - ivLow) * 100
             else 50;

def isPreEarnings = HasEarnings(EarningTime.AFTER_MARKET) within 5 bars
                 or HasEarnings(EarningTime.BEFORE_MARKET) within 5 bars;

plot EarningsIVRank = if isPreEarnings then ivRank else Double.NaN;

EarningsIVRank.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.HISTOGRAM);
EarningsIVRank.AssignValueColor(
    if ivRank > 75 then Color.RED
    else if ivRank > 50 then Color.YELLOW
    else Color.GREEN);

AddLabel(isPreEarnings, "IV Rank: " + Round(ivRank, 0) + "%",
    if ivRank > 75 then Color.RED
    else if ivRank > 50 then Color.YELLOW
    else Color.GREEN);

Tool Links and Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the average DIS earnings day move?

Over the last eight quarters, Disney (DIS) has moved an average of 4.8% on earnings day (measured as the absolute value of the open-to-previous-close gap). The largest move in the recent data set was 7.2% (May 2025, a gap-up on strong EPS and raised guidance), while the smallest was 2.4% (May 2024). Traders using volatility box levels should calibrate their expected move range around this 4% to 6% window for DIS.

How do I set up a TTM Squeeze scan for DIS earnings on thinkorswim?

Open the thinkorswim Stock Hacker scanner and create a custom scan using the TTM_Squeeze study. Set the filter to show stocks where the squeeze is currently active (red dots on the histogram). Add a symbol filter for DIS or include it in a broader watchlist of earnings candidates. The ttm squeeze thinkorswim course provides step-by-step video tutorials for building this scan.

Does Disney+ subscriber growth still matter for the DIS stock price?

Yes, but the focus has shifted from raw subscriber count to profitability metrics. By late 2024 and into 2025, the market shifted attention to Disney+ ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) and segment-level operating income. A quarter where Disney+ loses subscribers but improves ARPU and reduces losses can produce a positive stock reaction. Monitor both subscriber numbers and profitability figures when analyzing the earnings report.

What thinkorswim indicators work best for trading DIS after earnings?

The combination of TTM Squeeze (for pre-earnings volatility compression), the Volatility Box (for dynamic support and resistance), and a relative volume indicator (for confirming post-gap momentum) forms the strongest toolkit. The ThinkScript code blocks in this article provide custom implementations of each tool. The thinkorswim indicators suite includes pre-built versions that require no manual coding.

Should I hold DIS stock through earnings or trade the post-gap reaction?

The data favors trading the post-gap reaction rather than holding through the report. Holding through earnings introduces binary risk that cannot be managed with stop-loss orders, since the gap occurs before the market opens. The 72% gap-fill rate on DIS means that patient traders who wait for the gap and then trade the fill have a statistical edge over those who guess the direction beforehand.

How do I use thinkorswim scanners to find stocks with similar earnings patterns to DIS?

Build a custom scan in thinkorswim Stock Hacker that filters for large-cap stocks (market cap above $50 billion) with upcoming earnings within 14 days and an active TTM Squeeze. Apply the volatility box for stocks to each result to identify optimal entry and exit levels. The thinkorswim scanners page includes downloadable scan templates that automate this process.