Will S&P 500’s November Seasonality Kick In?

We combine the free seasonal analysis indicator with the utility labels indicator to build a picture of what November might look like inside the S&P 500. On 20 years of data, November closes above its open 80% of the time with an average gain of 1.88%, making it the third-best performing month after July and April. However, the sector utility labels show 9 of 11 sectors in deceleration (red), with only XLP and XLU not in a bearish trend. The seasonal data says look for buyers, but the sectors need to start transitioning for that strength to materialize.

November Seasonality in the S&P 500

In the companion video, we use two free indicators to assess what November might look like for the S&P 500 after a tumultuous October. The seasonal analysis indicator provides the historical data, and the utility labels (available through the Market Pulse downloads) show what the sectors are doing right now. Both indicators are 100% free.

Loading 20 years of data on SPY, the November label shows that 80% of the time, the S&P closes the end of November higher than where it opened at the start of the month. The average gain is 1.88%. Compared to the other months, November is the third-best performing month for the S&P, trailing only July and April. This paints a bullish picture for November.

Confirming Across Timeframes

Narrowing the data from 20 years down to just 5 years (only five data points), the idea of November being a strong month still holds. Expanding to the maximum available data also confirms the pattern. November's strength is consistent regardless of how you slice the lookback period.

December, by comparison, drops to about 65% green rate with a smaller average gain. November stands out as the more reliable seasonal month heading into year-end.

What the Sectors Are Telling Us

The seasonal data gives us a bullish bias, but the utility labels provide a reality check on current conditions. Loading the sector utility labels on SPY, 9 of 11 sectors show red labels, meaning they are in a stage of deceleration (bearish trend). Only two sectors are not in deceleration: XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLU (Utilities), both defensive sectors.

For the November seasonal strength to materialize, we would need to see some of the larger-weighted sectors start participating in a turn. The signal to watch for is the labels transitioning from red to orange, then to yellow or green. That transition tells you where money is starting to flow and where sector strength is building inside the S&P.

Combining the Two Signals

The seasonal analysis gives us the reason to look for buyers in November. The sector labels tell us the current starting point is weak, with most sectors still in deceleration. The practical takeaway: the seasonal bias is bullish, but you want to see sector participation before getting aggressive. Watch for the defensive-only leadership (XLP and XLU) to broaden out into cyclical sectors.

If the labels stay red across the board, that November seasonal strength may be delayed or muted. If you start seeing labels flip from red to orange or better, that is your confirmation that the seasonal tendency is kicking in.

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does the S&P 500 go up in November?

80% of the time on 20 years of data. The average gain is 1.88%, making November the third-best month after July and April. The pattern holds on maximum available data as well.

What are the utility labels showing?

9 of 11 S&P sectors are in deceleration (red labels), indicating a bearish trend. Only XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLU (Utilities), both defensive sectors, are not in deceleration.

How do I know when November strength is kicking in?

Watch the utility labels on the sectors. When labels start transitioning from red to orange, yellow, or green, that tells you money is flowing into those sectors and the seasonal strength is materializing.

Is the seasonal analysis indicator free?

Yes. Both the seasonal analysis indicator and the utility labels are free and available at tosindicators.com. The utility labels are part of the Market Pulse downloads.

How does November compare to December?

November is stronger. December drops to about 65% green rate with a smaller average gain. November at 80% with 1.88% average gain outperforms December on both consistency and magnitude.