Super Bowl Indicator

Test how much effective the Super Bowl stock market theory has been, in predicting market returns going back to the very first Super Bowl.

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Note:

If you need help importing the indicator into ThinkOrSwim, here is a step-by-step tutorial which walks through the entire process.

Introduction

The Super Bowl Indicator, also known as the Stock Market Predictor, is a popular myth that suggests that the outcome of the Super Bowl can predict the direction of the stock market for the coming year.

This theory states that:

  • If a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, it is a bearish signal for the stock market
  • If a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) wins, it is a bullish signal for the stock market

In this tutorial, we will put this theory to test, by building our very own Super Bowl Indicator.

Along the way, we will examine the underlying assumptions and principles, and evaluate its accuracy and reliability as a predictor of stock market performance.

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