Which Outperforms in October? (AAPL vs. NVDA)

We use the free seasonal analysis indicator to build a scan for stocks that perform well in October, then compare AAPL and NVDA. The scan found 140 symbols with a 70%+ October win rate over 3 years of weekly data. NVDA showed 100% October win rate on the weekly chart (about 13.85% average gain), but on 20 years of daily data, November is actually the standout month for NVDA at 75% with a 7.49% average gain. For AAPL, October and November are both solid months on 20 years of data.

Building an October Seasonal Scan

In the companion video, we start with the free seasonal analysis indicator and turn it into a ThinkOrSwim scan. The indicator code includes monthly breakdowns with comments that make it easy to find October's section (lines 131 to 141). We copy that code into a custom scan filter.

The scan criteria: October must be an up month at least 70% of the time, and the average October gain must be positive (greater than 0%). Running this on a weekly timeframe (which provides about 3 years of data) returned 140 symbols. You can download the seasonal analysis indicator for free from tosindicators.com.

NVDA: October Looks Great, But November Is Better

NVDA ranked at the top of the scan results. On the weekly 3-year chart, NVDA showed 100% of Octobers as up months with an average gain of approximately 13.85%. Switching to the daily timeframe (which provides more granular data), the October win rate dropped just below the 70% threshold with an average gain of 8.38%. The weekly candle loses some accuracy since it only knows the weekly open and close prices.

The more interesting finding came from loading 20 years of daily data on NVDA. Looking across all months, November stood out as the stronger month: a 75% win rate with an average gain of 7.49%. Only August and February beat November's win rate at 80% each. The scan pointed us to October, but the deeper analysis revealed that November is actually the month to focus on for NVDA.

AAPL: October and November Both Solid

Loading AAPL with 20 years of daily data showed that October is a solid month for Apple. November performed similarly well. Both months showed green labels on the seasonal indicator, indicating positive average performance. For AAPL, the October/November period as a whole represents a favorable seasonal window.

How to Build the Scan

Open the seasonal analysis indicator's ThinkScript code. Navigate to the month you want to scan (the comments label each month clearly). Copy the relevant code block into the ThinkOrSwim Scan tab's custom study filter. Replace the AddLabel line with a plot signal line, since AddLabel is not allowed in scans.

Set your conditions: the percentage of times the month closes above where it opened should be greater than your threshold (e.g., 70%), and the average difference should be greater than 0%. Run the scan on the weekly timeframe for more data, then use the daily timeframe with 20 years of data on specific stocks for deeper analysis.

Using the Scan as a Starting Point

The 140 symbols from the October scan are candidates, not confirmed trades. For each candidate, load the daily chart with the maximum available data (20 years if possible) and check whether October is genuinely the best month or if adjacent months like November or September tell a different story. In NVDA's case, the scan correctly identified a stock with strong Q4 seasonality, but the specific month worth trading was November, not October.

You can repeat this process for any month. Change the code to target November, December, or any other month and re-run the scan to find new candidates. The seasonal analysis indicator is free for everyone at tosindicators.com.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many stocks passed the October seasonal scan?

140 symbols passed the criteria of 70%+ October win rate with a positive average gain, using 3 years of weekly data in ThinkOrSwim.

Is October or November better for NVDA?

November. On 20 years of daily data, NVDA has a 75% November win rate with a 7.49% average gain. October showed strong results on 3 years of weekly data (100% win rate, 13.85% avg gain) but was slightly below the 70% threshold on the daily timeframe.

What timeframe should I use for the seasonal scan?

Start with the weekly timeframe for the scan (about 3 years of data for a broader sample). Then switch to the daily timeframe with 20 years of data on specific stocks to validate and dig deeper.

Is the seasonal analysis indicator free?

Yes. The seasonal analysis indicator is free for everyone and can be downloaded from tosindicators.com. It works on any ThinkOrSwim chart and shows month-by-month historical performance data.

How do I turn the indicator into a scan?

Copy the code for your target month from the indicator's ThinkScript. Paste it into a custom scan filter. Replace AddLabel with a plot signal line (AddLabel is not allowed in scans). Set your win rate threshold and average gain condition, then run the scan.